LINK HERE
Monsieur le Docteur Joseph-Ignace Guillotin did not invent that instrument which bears his name. Such devices had been in use in Europe for two centuries. But the times being what they were, some such mechanized expedient was called for. Or perhaps the contraption's excellence cried out for use -- a better mousetrap and all that.
There would be much to recommend such a device. Avoid a reprise of the Mary, Queen of Scots debacle, whose neck took three great whacks and still she didn't lose her head -- the discomfited headsman had to saw through the last bits of integument with his hip knife before the job was quite done. How embarrassing for him. During the interim between the first and the second chops, the poor former queen loosed such a wrenching and protracted groan that the crowd, usually intoxicated in such festive circumstances with blood lust, gaped in horrified silence. So, then -- live and learn, eh?
But what about these heads? Does consciousness survive for some brief moments within the disembodied -- or would it be disbodied -- head? Anecdotal evidence abounds. The heads of two National Assembly rivals were placed into a sack -- when later removed, one had bitten into the cheek of the other so deeply it could not be pried off. The executioner of Charlotte Corday -- who murdered Jean-Paul Marat -- held up her severed head and slapped its cheek; witnesses claimed the face blushed and looked indignant. A soldier who witnessed the decapitation of a friend in a 1989 auto accident relates how the head opened and closed its mouth several times, taking on an expression of shock or confusion, then of terror or grief; its eyes moved from the soldier, to its separated body, then back to the soldier -- direct eye contact, then hazy, then absent and dead.
Which brings to mind the report of Dr. Beaurieux, who, staid man of science that he was, resolved one early summer morning in 1905 to settle once and for all the question of whether a severed head retains for any appreciable time some measure of consciousness, and if so, for how long.
Observe, then, condemned murderer Henri Languille, who mounts with notable sangfroid the scaffold to kneel beneath the blade.
Next, consider his severed head, which fortuitously lands stump-down on the neck, thus perfectly oriented for observation. The doctor notes the eyelids working in irregular contractions for five seconds or so, then they are still and half-closed, the face relaxed. The doctor calls out sharply, "Languille!" The eyelids lift slowly and smoothly, as an awakening, and the eyes focus very definitely upon the doctor's -- clearly, undeniably living. A pause of several seconds, and then the eyes close again. One might almost hear a sigh. Again the doctor cries out, "Languille!" -- and again, smoothly, slowly, the eyelids lift and the eyes fix on the doctor's, with perhaps even more intelligence than the first time. Then a drooping of lids, a fading, a third calling of the name, Languille! but there is no response, and the eyes are glazed, empty, gone. Thirty seconds have passed.
The issue is murky, though. No fewer than three physicians attended the 1879 beheading of one Theotime Prunier, amenable to their end if not his own. The triumverate of medicos immediately snatched up the head and shouted in the face, stuck it with pins, placed ammonia under the nose and candle flames in the eyeballs. No response but a look of astonishment on Prunier's visage, which need have no special significance -- slack jaw and gawking eyes would be expected.
All of it need mean nothing. Two severed heads in a bag need not have been snarling and snapping at each other; one might have been placed sometime after the other, but immediately after its own severing -- and the bite a mere spasmodic reflex. A severed head's cheek might well blush, because blushing is certainly dependent upon capillary blood, but not necessarily upon vascular bloodflow: slaps cause redness. Expressions of shock or of horror are instinctive and universal to the human condition -- perhaps they have no more meaning than the galvanic twitching of frog legs. Eyes widen at a loud sound -- as it happens in this case, the loud calling of a name. Yes. It may all be true, and at the same time meaningless.
The very idea is absurd, that a severed head should be alive. It takes eight seconds to choke a man into unconsciousness -- as I, the third most dangerous middle-aged man west of the Mississippi, ought to know. A severed head can have no blood pressure whatsoever, so one might think that unconsciousness, if not death, must be instantaneous.
But upon deeper reflection, the oxygen that is present, remains present -- it doesn't just remove itself along with the body. Capillaries do not drain themselves in a great Niagara of gore. So we might expect something like eight seconds of consciousness. Further, what effect does having one's entire body mass instantly reduced to some 10 pounds have on the metabolic rate of oxygen usage? Perhaps when the brain doesn't have to think about running the body, it uses less oxygen. And it may be that the concept of consciousness and unconsciousness -- lucidity and dreaming -- takes on an almost incomprehensible meaning, upon the shocking loss of one's bodily appendage. We know the spirit lingers -- heart stoppage isn't death, anymore.
Ah well. It's all speculation. That is, the speculation is speculation. The observations are what they are: phenomena translated into neural impulses within the brain, to manifest eventually as expressions of opinion.
So? Do I have a point? No. I could drag the islamists into it, what with their holy sacrament of beheading infidels and insufficiently subservient women. I could make some bitter correlation between aborted fetuses and still-conscious but not-legally-human-anymore severed heads. I could make it a metaphor for loss and mourning. I could try to blame God for it all. But sometime I just like to chat, share a little of the odd things that have collected in my brain. You know -- the way buddies just talk to each other, sometimes. Let's call this one of those times. Okay? Pal? Because we have voices. We can communicate with each other, in complex ways, with more than just blinking. So that we can know for sure that we're alive.
........
In actuality, the human head does remain conscious fifteen to twenty seconds after decapitation. This was proven when a scientist condemned to the guillotine in the 1700s told his assistant to watch and that he would blink as many times as he could. The assistant counted fifteen to twenty blinks after the head was severed, the blinks coming at intervals of about one second. So the head does remain briefly alive.
........
Let's see. Over the years we've covered crucifixion, kidney theft, and now a second helping of decapitation. What next, you ask — how to perform your own spinal tap? But bear with me. New facts have come to light.
A lot of people disputed my claim that victims of the guillotine blacked out immediately. Many had seen a TV show on the Discovery Channel called "The Guillotine" in which a medical expert tells the story above, with the added detail that the scientist was the pioneering French chemist Antoine Lavoisier, who was beheaded during the Reign of Terror in 1794.
Not likely. There's no mention of the blinking incident in the standard biographies of Lavoisier. When I contacted the expert quoted on the TV show, neurosurgeon Robert Fink, he said he'd heard the story from a colleague. The colleague said he'd read it in a book, but couldn't remember which. He admitted the story may be apocryphal.
But let's return to the original question, appalling though it may be: Is a severed head aware of its fate? People have been debating the point since the invention of the guillotine, and not just out of morbid curiosity. Some felt the guillotine, far from being quick and painless, was an instrument of the most profound and horrible torture: to be aware of having been beheaded. Numerous anecdotes and bizarre experiments have been adduced as evidence on either side. After Charlotte Corday was guillotined for murdering Jean-Paul Marat, the executioner slapped her cheek while holding her severed head aloft. Witnesses claimed the cheeks reddened (without blood?) and the face looked indignant. According to another tale, when the heads of two rivals in the National Assembly were placed in a sack following execution, one bit the other so badly the two couldn't be separated.
It doesn't get any better. In one early series of experiments, an anatomist claimed that decapitated heads reacted to stimuli, with one victim turning his eyes toward a speaker 15 minutes after having been beheaded. (Today we know brain death would have occurred long before.) In 1836 the murderer Lacenaire agreed to wink after execution. He didn't. Attempts to elicit a reaction from the head of the murderer Prunier in 1879 were also fruitless. The following year a doctor pumped blood from a living dog into the head of the murderer and rapist Menesclou three hours after execution. The lips trembled, the eyelids twitched, and the head seemed about to speak, although no words emerged. In 1905 another doctor claimed that when he called the name of the murderer Languille just after decapitation, the head opened its eyes and focused on him.
Is it possible? The aforementioned Dr. Fink believed the brain might remain conscious as long as 15 seconds; that's how long cardiac arrest victims last before blacking out. (Dr. Fink's colleague put the window of awareness at 5 seconds.) He also pointed out that people have remained alert after having had their spinal cords severed. Still, this didn't seem like the sort of question that could ever be resolved.
Then I received a note from a U.S. Army veteran who had been stationed in Korea. In June 1989 the taxi he and a friend were riding in collided with a truck. My correspondent was pinned in the wreckage. The friend was decapitated. Here's what happened:
My friend's head came to rest face up, and (from my angle) upside-down. As I watched, his mouth opened and closed no less than two times. The facial expressions he displayed were first of shock or confusion, followed by terror or grief. I cannot exaggerate and say that he was looking all around, but he did display ocular movement in that his eyes moved from me, to his body, and back to me. He had direct eye contact with me when his eyes took on a hazy, absent expression … and he was dead.
I've spoken with the author and am satisfied the event occurred as described. One can of course never be certain that anyone in this predicament is aware of his surroundings and realizes (briefly) what has happened to him. But I concede the possibility that he might.
........
The Medical Answer:
The current medical consensus is that life does survive, for a period of roughly thirteen seconds, varying slightly depending on the victim's build, health and the immediate circumstances of the decapitation. The simple act of removing a head from a body is not what kills the brain, rather, it is the lack of oxygen and other important chemicals provided in the bloodstream. To quote Dr. Ron Wright "The 13 seconds is the amount of high energy phosphates that the cytochromes in the brain have to keep going without new oxygen and glucose" (Cited from urbanlegends.com, no longer extant). The precise post-execution lifespan will depend on how much oxygen, and other chemicals, were in the brain at the point of decapitation; however, eyes could certainly move and blink.
Do You Remain Aware?:
This solely technical survival forms only part of the answer; the second question is 'how long does the victim remain aware?' While the brain remains chemically alive, consciousness can cease immediately, caused by the loss of blood pressure or if the victim is knocked unconscious by the force of the decapitating blow. If that weren't to happen immediately, an individual could in theory remain self-aware for part of the thirteen-second period. There is no consistency in this answer, as the precise length of both actual, and practical, survival will vary depending on the victim. Of course, this applies to many forms of swift decapitation, and not just to the victims of the guillotine.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
guillotine
The guillotine is a curious method of execution and although it is generally held to be humane, there is some question about how quickly one dies after being decapitated.
Two doctors in the 1960s wrote that death is not instantaneous. Every vital element survives decapitation...it is a savage vivisection followed by premature burial." Drs. Piedlievre and Fournier go on to discuss how the brain is capable of breaking down complex sugars in the neurons into oxygen for as long as six minutes after decapitation.
Eyewitness accounts also call into question the swiftness of the onset of death after beheading. "Did it, those who saw the grimacing heads in the basket wondered, kill instantaneously?" writes Colin Wilson. "In the 1790's this question was much debated, as when Charlotte Corday's head was held up and slapped by the assistant executioner, men swore that it not only blushed but 'showed most unequivocal signs of indignation.'"
In an even more graphic account written in 1905, a French doctor experimented with the head of an executed criminal:
"The head fell on the severed surface of the neck ... I was not obliged even to touch it in order to set it upright. Chance served me well for the observation, which I wished to make.
"Here, then, is what I was able to note immediately after the decapitation: the eyelids and lips of the guillotined man worked in irregularly rhythmic contractions for about five or six seconds. This phenomenon has been remarked by all those finding themselves in the same conditions as myself for observing what happens after the severing of the neck...
"I waited for several seconds. The spasmodic movements ceased. The face relaxed, the lids half closed on the eyeballs, leaving only the white of the conjunctiva visible. ... It was then that I called in a strong, sharp voice: "Languille!" I saw the eyelids slowly lift up, without any spasmodic contractions -- I insist advisedly on this peculiarity -- but with an even movement, quite distinct and normal, such as happens in everyday life, with people awakened or torn from their thoughts.
"Next Languille's eyes very definitely fixed themselves on mine and the pupils focused themselves. I was not, then, dealing with the sort of vague dull look without any expression, that can be observed any day in dying people to whom one speaks: I was dealing with undeniably living eyes which were looking at me.
"After several seconds, the eyelids closed again, slowly and evenly, and the head took on the same appearance as it had had before I called out.
"It was at that point that I called out again and, once more, without any spasm, slowly, the eyelids lifted and undeniably living eyes fixed themselves on mine with perhaps even more penetration than the first time. There was a further closing of the eyelids, but now less complete. I attempted the effect of a third call; there was one further movement -- and the eyes took on the glazed look which they have in the dead.
"I have just recounted to you with rigorous exactness what I was able to observe. The whole thing had lasted twenty-five to thirty seconds."
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
erhu demo at the ROM
May is China month at the ROM. There was a nice lady from Shanghai playing the erhu there. This is just a small clip of her playing. I'm no expert, but sounds good to me. The guide who looked half Chinese gave a nice explanation of the flute and together they played a duet before I moved on.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Japan on the blocks
From the Globe and Mail
LINK
TOKYO — It all comes down to the two inevitables, says Kenneth Courtis: death and taxes.
Mr. Courtis, an investment banker and veteran observer of Asian economies, is at his usual table in his favourite Tokyo hotel, the Okura, talking about the troubles that threaten Japan's future – and by extension, the world's.
Those troubles don't get much press these days. Distracted by the spectacular rise of China (and now India) and frankly bored by the endless Noh drama of Japanese politics, the world has lost interest in Japan's progress, or lack of it.
Japan has passed through its valley of the shadow of death, surviving the burst of its asset bubble and the resulting economic slump that once threatened to pull down the global financial system like Samson.
Over the past five years, its nearly $5-trillion (U.S.) economy has even enjoyed a modest rebound, growing at an annual average of 1.7 per cent. Japan will host the annual summit of the G8 countries July 7 to 9.
Looks are deceiving
Tokyo in spring, 2008, has every appearance of prosperity, success and order. The streets teem with fashionable young women and neatly dressed salarymen. The shops and department stores of the Ginza overflow with Prada, Ralph Lauren and Luis Vuitton.
At the Okura, an elegant grande dame of Tokyo hotels, a middle-aged man and his much younger wife settle in at a table, parking their infant in a designer stroller, while four wealthy-looking elderly women take coffee in one corner.
“When you have cancer, the stages of remission feel pretty good,” Mr. Courtis says over a bowl of berries and yogurt.
The aura of comfort is deceptive. Japan's recovery has begun to falter as the ripples from the U.S. downturn spread west across the Pacific. Much more serious troubles lie ahead – troubles that, if left unaddressed, could cripple the world's second-biggest economy and affect every industrial country including Canada, which counts Japan as its third-largest trading partner.
The inevitables
That is where Mr. Courtis and his inevitables come in.
Canadian-born, educated in Toronto and Paris, he has lived in Japan for 25 years, advising clients about investing in Japan and other parts of Asia. As an executive with Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs Asia, he was once one of Japan's biggest boosters. Now, he spends just a quarter of his time in his adopted hometown of Tokyo, travelling instead to China and other Asian countries with greater allure for investors.
“Japan is on a massive collision course between two fundamental realities,” he says, scrawling figures on a paper placemat to make his point.
On the one hand, death. Because women are having fewer children, Japanese are dying at a greater rate than they are being born. Result: an aging, shrinking work force.
This is the Year of the Rat in the Chinese zodiac. By the next Year of the Rat in 2020, Mr. Courtis says, 43 per cent of adult Japanese will be over 60. They will be retiring or getting ready to retire. Who will work while they play golf? Who will pay their pensions? Who will provide for their health care when they get old and sick?
The working-age population is expected to fall by one-fifth by 2030, when there will be just two workers for every pensioner.
Now consider taxes. When Japan was trying to dig itself out of its big economic hole in the 1990s, it spent hundreds of billions of dollars on public works and other pump-priming measures, a vast Keynesian exercise that made Roosevelt's New Deal look like a high-school car wash by comparison.
The after-effect is what Mr. Courtis calls a “Himalaya of debt” amounting to 180 per cent of gross domestic product, by far the highest among major economies and indeed the highest ever recorded by a modern industrialized country. Who will pay it back?
To illustrate how hard it will be, Mr. Courtis jots down a few scenarios. Even if Japan stopped adding to its debt tomorrow and recorded annual economic growth of 4 per cent for the next dozen years – both highly optimistic “ifs” – it would still have a debt of 115 per cent of GDP by 2020, as high as struggling Italy's today.
Mr. Courtis's death-and-taxes realities are converging at a remorseless pace. An aging population means a need for higher government spending; a high debt means less government money to spend.
Time for reform
Japan has perhaps a couple of decades to bring in the fundamental economic and social reforms that are needed to make it productive and resilient enough to survive the collision. Can it muster the will to remake itself one more time?
Until recently, the prospects for change were looking up. There has been real progress since what Mr. Courtis calls the near-death experience of the 1990s.
Japanese banks have cleaned up their bad loans and clawed back from the threatened insolvency that frightened the world in the 1990s. Japanese companies have straightened out their balance sheets, paid off their debts and started turning robust profits again. Toyota is vying with General Motors for the title of world's leading auto maker. Nintendo has reconfirmed Japan's genius for innovation with the wild success of its Wii game-playing device.
While the world looked the other way, Japan actually enacted some reforms that foreign critics have recommended for years. New accounting rules make it harder for companies to hide bad results, requiring them to report the performance of subsidiaries instead of just consolidated earnings. Revised labour laws make it easier for firms to hire temporary workers so that they can respond to shifting conditions. Shareholders have gained new rights to challenge inept corporate managers.
In politics, the five-year star turn of reforming Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), Japan's most successful politician in decades, showed that the public was hungry for change.
“Japan has changed a lot over the past decade and half,” says University of California professor Steven Vogel, whose 2006 book Japan Remodeled documents the reforms. “The economic crisis was a real shock to the system.”
But just as things seemed to be getting better, doubts have begun to gather about whether Japan is really willing or able to remake itself.
Mr. Koizumi's successors, Shinto Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, have been a crashing letdown. Mr. Abe resigned last September, ill and unloved. Mr. Fukuda, 71, has seen his approval ratings fall to near-historic lows. As he appears on television daily with his sober cabinet colleagues, Mr. Fukuda seems to have come straight from central casting for Japanese prime ministers, with the charisma of a bank clerk and policies as opaque as a sliding paper door.
The Fukuda government is so weak that the world's biggest creditor nation found itself without a central bank chief for three full weeks this spring as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wrangled with the opposition over a successor.
With no clear direction from the top, reform has faltered. The government's decision to block a bid by a British hedge fund to buy more stock in a Japanese electrical utility, J-Power, has confirmed the impression that Japan is allergic to foreign direct investment. The recent resurgence of cross-shareholdings – in which companies make cozy alliances to protect themselves – echoes the bad old days of inbred Japanese corporate leadership.
Clinging to the past
Robert Feldman, managing director of Morgan Stanley in Japan, says conservatives in the government and bureaucracy are staging a rear-guard action to defend Japan's old, insular way of doing things.
“In the end, what the traditionalists prefer is the current system with themselves in power,” he said in his Tokyo office. “For those of us who are concerned about Japan's economy, for its place in Asia and its ability to sustain living standards for an aging population, that sort of traditionalist position is incomprehensible.”
A 20-year veteran of Japan's reform battles, Mr. Feldman says reform goes through a kind of “hog cycle.” When hog prices are good, farmers produce more hogs, so prices go down and they produce fewer hogs. In the same way, government hastens reform when the economy worsens, reform revives the economy and the pressure for reform eases, as it has in the past few years.
If the theory holds true, the case for reform should be strengthening again. The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast for the coming year to 1.5 per cent from 2.1 per cent. Business sentiment has hit a four-year low and consumer confidence is at a five-year low.
With interest rates already at a minimal 0.5 per cent, the government can hardly cut rates to stimulate the economy. In any case, consumer prices are rising, so a rate cut might push up inflation. It can't cut taxes or raise spending much either, it's in such a fiscal bind.
Its place in the world
Yes, Japan still has many world-beating companies, household names such as Canon, Honda, Sanyo and Toshiba. But nearly half of Japanese manufacturing by value is performed by much smaller, less visible firms, many of them struggling. “That's the only sector we're competitive in, so it's a problem,” says Kyoji Fukao, who teaches economics at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo. He estimates that the manufacturing sector's share of the economy is down to 20 per cent and falling. In the highly regulated service sector, meanwhile, annual productivity growth has fallen from 3.5 per cent in the 1980s and late 1970s to less than 1 per cent today.
Partly as a result, overall labour productivity, already just 30 per cent the U.S. level, is growing far too slowly – at 1.2 per cent a year, about half the average for industrialized countries.
Japanese still work amazingly, sometimes dangerously, hard. Lights burn late at most Tokyo offices and death from overwork – so common that Japanese have a name for it, karoshi – is a national health problem. But the hard fact is that they are no longer world beaters.
Nor are most Japanese companies. Their return on equity, a common measure of their performance, averaged around 9 per cent, against 14 to 17 per cent in Western countries.
Japan trails in entrepreneurial vigour, too. In the United States, about 14 per cent of companies are startups; in Japan, just 4 per cent. Japan is even faltering in innovation, once the hallmark of Japanese capitalism. The iPod should have been invented in Tokyo or Kyoto, not Cupertino, Calif.
Wireless telecom giant NTT DoCoMo's format for Internet over cellphones, wildly popular in Japan, failed to catch on overseas, partly because its complex menus proved daunting to foreigners.
Japanese sentiment
Japanese are painfully aware of how far their nation has fallen. Economy Minister Hiroko Ota told her countrymen in January that Japan can no longer be considered a first-class economy. Japan, she said, had fallen to 18th among the top 30 industrialized nations when measured by gross domestic product per capita. Among the G7 countries that make up the core of that club – the United States, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada – it has fallen from first in the early 1990s to last today. Meanwhile, its share of aggregate world income has fallen below 10 per cent for the first time in 24 years.
To ordinary Japanese, what matters even more is the rising costs of gas, tolls, electricity and instant noodles. “The politicians keep telling us that the economy will get better, but I don't see it,” says Kaz Shinoda, 50. A high-school English teacher, he has had no pay raise for four years, yet the costs of feeding his wife and two children have soared.
His friend Takumu Kato, a retired biology teacher, has it worse. He recently started work as a night clerk in a 7-Eleven store to make ends meet.
Millions of Japanese like him have moved to part-time and casual work as the lifetime employment system crumbles. About a third of all employees are now non-regular workers. The Japanese call them “freeters,” from the English “free” and the German “ arbeiter,” or worker.
The result is a rising sense of insecurity. “It used to be that if you were hired by a company, you at least had a guarantee for life,” says Tetsuya Iida, whose temporary employment agency recently sent him to operate a machine that picks up street litter. “Now you can get fired any time.”
Twenty years ago, the overwhelming majority of Japanese – 75 per cent – used to consider themselves middle class. Today only about half do.
It's a long way from the “miracle” years. After registering 10 per cent average annual growth in the 1960s, 5 per cent in the 1970s and 4 per cent in the 1980s, Japan's was the most talked-about economy on the planet, a marvel of efficiency and creativity that seemed destined to eclipse the washed-up nations of the West. Readers snapped up books like Harvard scholar Ezra Vogel's Japan as Number One to find out how the Japanese were beating the Americans at their own game. U.S. congressmen railed against Japanese companies for flooding North America with cheap cars, stereos and TV sets while buying up famous assets like Hollywood's Columbia Pictures and New York's Rockefeller Center.
It seemed as if the Japanese had invented a new and better kind of capitalism, one that combined with wealth-creating dynamism of the Western market system with the steady hand of government guidance and the security of lifetime employment.
The beginning of the fall
It all started to unravel on Jan. 2, 1990. That day, the main index of the Tokyo stock market started falling from its dizzying peak of more than 39,000 (nearly three times its level today). The collapse of Japan's stock and real estate markets brought on the “lost decade” of the 1990s, a time of stagnating growth, rising joblessness and soaring suicide rates.
The things that had been touted as Japan's strengths turned out to be weaknesses. The wise, all-seeing bureaucrats who had guided its rise to riches were, in fact, often blinkered and hidebound, sealed in an unhealthy embrace with powerful, often corrupt, politicians. The giant corporations that had so impressed the world were revealed as coddled, unresponsive dinosaurs whose faults had been covered up by friendly banks and interlinked corporate allies. Mitsubishi's corporate family, for example, included Kirin beer and Nikon cameras as well as Mitsubishi Trust, Mitsubishi Bank, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mitsubishi Electric and others.
Lifetime employment prevented companies from hiring and firing workers to account for economic ups and downs. A stock market that scorned the small shareholder meant that Japanese kept their money in the bank, earning almost no interest and producing virtually no wealth, as it might if invested in the market. Even today Japanese savers have a staggering $15-trillion that is, in effect, stuffed under the mattress.
The capacity to change
Ever since Japan's crisis, it has been clear what has to change to make things right. Companies have to break their incestuous ties with banks and allied companies and govern themselves more like North American or European companies, with independent directors, stronger rights for shareholders and transparent reporting. Government has to ease regulation in the domestic market and put a fire under companies by letting more foreign companies come in to compete.
The country has to make up for the coming labour shortage by bringing in more immigrants and encouraging more women to enter the work force.
“Japan needs the world and the world needs Japan,” says Scott Callon, head of a Tokyo investment fund who is “very much a proponent of more openness, more cross-fertilization with the external world.”
But to get there, he says, Japanese will have to defeat the forces of tradition, insularity and complacency.
“There's a fight on for Japan's future between those who want a brighter future, with more risk, and those who say ‘what we have is what we have and we should protect it.' It's the difference between looking forward and looking back.”
The good news, Mr. Callon says, is that “Japan has demonstrated a tremendous ability to change. This is a country which has proven to be very capable of keeping true to its traditions and culture yet bringing in what works for the rest of the world.”
Despite the inevitables, Ken Courtis agrees. In the Meiji Restoration of the late 19th century, he notes, Japan transformed itself from an isolated, feudal state into a modern power with a Western legal system, an all-new education system and the beginnings of parliamentary government.
Again, after the Second World War, it clawed its way out of the ashes of defeat to become the world's economic wunderkind. It is as wrong now to write off Japan as a spent force as it was to say before that it was destined to rule the world economy.
The question is not so much whether Japan can change, but whether it can change fast enough. The answer is still very much in the balance.
To escape the collision of death and taxes, Japan will need to put on a burst of speed in productivity and wealth creation like nothing since its “miracle” years. Possible? Yes, if Japan grasps the nettle and musters the will to act decisively. Likely? Mr. Courtis scribbles a to-do list for Japan, ranging from massive corporate reform and wholesale privatization of state assets to higher immigration and all-out attack on the debt.
The changes that are needed are profound. Allowing mass immigration would require a huge cultural shift. For a country that still depends on its women to raise the young and care for the aged, seeing women shift en masse into paid work would take another sharp adjustment. Companies fear opening up to a world of hostile takeovers, mergers, critical directors and shareholder revolts.
Mr. Courtis looks down at the list. “Now how likely do you think it is that all of that will happen?”
For a society that operates by consensus, with a political system dominated by conservative vested interests, reaching any decision can be an agony, to say nothing of a decision to fundamentally reorder a whole society. “The Japanese knew after Midway that they had lost the war,” says Mr. Courtis, referring to the American naval victory in the Pacific six months after Pearl Harbour, “But they couldn't make the decision to end it.”
Japan had its economic Midway nearly 20 years ago, in the 1990 market crash. Time to change is running out, the inevitables are closing in.
LINK
TOKYO — It all comes down to the two inevitables, says Kenneth Courtis: death and taxes.
Mr. Courtis, an investment banker and veteran observer of Asian economies, is at his usual table in his favourite Tokyo hotel, the Okura, talking about the troubles that threaten Japan's future – and by extension, the world's.
Those troubles don't get much press these days. Distracted by the spectacular rise of China (and now India) and frankly bored by the endless Noh drama of Japanese politics, the world has lost interest in Japan's progress, or lack of it.
Japan has passed through its valley of the shadow of death, surviving the burst of its asset bubble and the resulting economic slump that once threatened to pull down the global financial system like Samson.
Over the past five years, its nearly $5-trillion (U.S.) economy has even enjoyed a modest rebound, growing at an annual average of 1.7 per cent. Japan will host the annual summit of the G8 countries July 7 to 9.
Looks are deceiving
Tokyo in spring, 2008, has every appearance of prosperity, success and order. The streets teem with fashionable young women and neatly dressed salarymen. The shops and department stores of the Ginza overflow with Prada, Ralph Lauren and Luis Vuitton.
At the Okura, an elegant grande dame of Tokyo hotels, a middle-aged man and his much younger wife settle in at a table, parking their infant in a designer stroller, while four wealthy-looking elderly women take coffee in one corner.
“When you have cancer, the stages of remission feel pretty good,” Mr. Courtis says over a bowl of berries and yogurt.
The aura of comfort is deceptive. Japan's recovery has begun to falter as the ripples from the U.S. downturn spread west across the Pacific. Much more serious troubles lie ahead – troubles that, if left unaddressed, could cripple the world's second-biggest economy and affect every industrial country including Canada, which counts Japan as its third-largest trading partner.
The inevitables
That is where Mr. Courtis and his inevitables come in.
Canadian-born, educated in Toronto and Paris, he has lived in Japan for 25 years, advising clients about investing in Japan and other parts of Asia. As an executive with Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs Asia, he was once one of Japan's biggest boosters. Now, he spends just a quarter of his time in his adopted hometown of Tokyo, travelling instead to China and other Asian countries with greater allure for investors.
“Japan is on a massive collision course between two fundamental realities,” he says, scrawling figures on a paper placemat to make his point.
On the one hand, death. Because women are having fewer children, Japanese are dying at a greater rate than they are being born. Result: an aging, shrinking work force.
This is the Year of the Rat in the Chinese zodiac. By the next Year of the Rat in 2020, Mr. Courtis says, 43 per cent of adult Japanese will be over 60. They will be retiring or getting ready to retire. Who will work while they play golf? Who will pay their pensions? Who will provide for their health care when they get old and sick?
The working-age population is expected to fall by one-fifth by 2030, when there will be just two workers for every pensioner.
Now consider taxes. When Japan was trying to dig itself out of its big economic hole in the 1990s, it spent hundreds of billions of dollars on public works and other pump-priming measures, a vast Keynesian exercise that made Roosevelt's New Deal look like a high-school car wash by comparison.
The after-effect is what Mr. Courtis calls a “Himalaya of debt” amounting to 180 per cent of gross domestic product, by far the highest among major economies and indeed the highest ever recorded by a modern industrialized country. Who will pay it back?
To illustrate how hard it will be, Mr. Courtis jots down a few scenarios. Even if Japan stopped adding to its debt tomorrow and recorded annual economic growth of 4 per cent for the next dozen years – both highly optimistic “ifs” – it would still have a debt of 115 per cent of GDP by 2020, as high as struggling Italy's today.
Mr. Courtis's death-and-taxes realities are converging at a remorseless pace. An aging population means a need for higher government spending; a high debt means less government money to spend.
Time for reform
Japan has perhaps a couple of decades to bring in the fundamental economic and social reforms that are needed to make it productive and resilient enough to survive the collision. Can it muster the will to remake itself one more time?
Until recently, the prospects for change were looking up. There has been real progress since what Mr. Courtis calls the near-death experience of the 1990s.
Japanese banks have cleaned up their bad loans and clawed back from the threatened insolvency that frightened the world in the 1990s. Japanese companies have straightened out their balance sheets, paid off their debts and started turning robust profits again. Toyota is vying with General Motors for the title of world's leading auto maker. Nintendo has reconfirmed Japan's genius for innovation with the wild success of its Wii game-playing device.
While the world looked the other way, Japan actually enacted some reforms that foreign critics have recommended for years. New accounting rules make it harder for companies to hide bad results, requiring them to report the performance of subsidiaries instead of just consolidated earnings. Revised labour laws make it easier for firms to hire temporary workers so that they can respond to shifting conditions. Shareholders have gained new rights to challenge inept corporate managers.
In politics, the five-year star turn of reforming Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), Japan's most successful politician in decades, showed that the public was hungry for change.
“Japan has changed a lot over the past decade and half,” says University of California professor Steven Vogel, whose 2006 book Japan Remodeled documents the reforms. “The economic crisis was a real shock to the system.”
But just as things seemed to be getting better, doubts have begun to gather about whether Japan is really willing or able to remake itself.
Mr. Koizumi's successors, Shinto Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, have been a crashing letdown. Mr. Abe resigned last September, ill and unloved. Mr. Fukuda, 71, has seen his approval ratings fall to near-historic lows. As he appears on television daily with his sober cabinet colleagues, Mr. Fukuda seems to have come straight from central casting for Japanese prime ministers, with the charisma of a bank clerk and policies as opaque as a sliding paper door.
The Fukuda government is so weak that the world's biggest creditor nation found itself without a central bank chief for three full weeks this spring as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wrangled with the opposition over a successor.
With no clear direction from the top, reform has faltered. The government's decision to block a bid by a British hedge fund to buy more stock in a Japanese electrical utility, J-Power, has confirmed the impression that Japan is allergic to foreign direct investment. The recent resurgence of cross-shareholdings – in which companies make cozy alliances to protect themselves – echoes the bad old days of inbred Japanese corporate leadership.
Clinging to the past
Robert Feldman, managing director of Morgan Stanley in Japan, says conservatives in the government and bureaucracy are staging a rear-guard action to defend Japan's old, insular way of doing things.
“In the end, what the traditionalists prefer is the current system with themselves in power,” he said in his Tokyo office. “For those of us who are concerned about Japan's economy, for its place in Asia and its ability to sustain living standards for an aging population, that sort of traditionalist position is incomprehensible.”
A 20-year veteran of Japan's reform battles, Mr. Feldman says reform goes through a kind of “hog cycle.” When hog prices are good, farmers produce more hogs, so prices go down and they produce fewer hogs. In the same way, government hastens reform when the economy worsens, reform revives the economy and the pressure for reform eases, as it has in the past few years.
If the theory holds true, the case for reform should be strengthening again. The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast for the coming year to 1.5 per cent from 2.1 per cent. Business sentiment has hit a four-year low and consumer confidence is at a five-year low.
With interest rates already at a minimal 0.5 per cent, the government can hardly cut rates to stimulate the economy. In any case, consumer prices are rising, so a rate cut might push up inflation. It can't cut taxes or raise spending much either, it's in such a fiscal bind.
Its place in the world
Yes, Japan still has many world-beating companies, household names such as Canon, Honda, Sanyo and Toshiba. But nearly half of Japanese manufacturing by value is performed by much smaller, less visible firms, many of them struggling. “That's the only sector we're competitive in, so it's a problem,” says Kyoji Fukao, who teaches economics at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo. He estimates that the manufacturing sector's share of the economy is down to 20 per cent and falling. In the highly regulated service sector, meanwhile, annual productivity growth has fallen from 3.5 per cent in the 1980s and late 1970s to less than 1 per cent today.
Partly as a result, overall labour productivity, already just 30 per cent the U.S. level, is growing far too slowly – at 1.2 per cent a year, about half the average for industrialized countries.
Japanese still work amazingly, sometimes dangerously, hard. Lights burn late at most Tokyo offices and death from overwork – so common that Japanese have a name for it, karoshi – is a national health problem. But the hard fact is that they are no longer world beaters.
Nor are most Japanese companies. Their return on equity, a common measure of their performance, averaged around 9 per cent, against 14 to 17 per cent in Western countries.
Japan trails in entrepreneurial vigour, too. In the United States, about 14 per cent of companies are startups; in Japan, just 4 per cent. Japan is even faltering in innovation, once the hallmark of Japanese capitalism. The iPod should have been invented in Tokyo or Kyoto, not Cupertino, Calif.
Wireless telecom giant NTT DoCoMo's format for Internet over cellphones, wildly popular in Japan, failed to catch on overseas, partly because its complex menus proved daunting to foreigners.
Japanese sentiment
Japanese are painfully aware of how far their nation has fallen. Economy Minister Hiroko Ota told her countrymen in January that Japan can no longer be considered a first-class economy. Japan, she said, had fallen to 18th among the top 30 industrialized nations when measured by gross domestic product per capita. Among the G7 countries that make up the core of that club – the United States, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada – it has fallen from first in the early 1990s to last today. Meanwhile, its share of aggregate world income has fallen below 10 per cent for the first time in 24 years.
To ordinary Japanese, what matters even more is the rising costs of gas, tolls, electricity and instant noodles. “The politicians keep telling us that the economy will get better, but I don't see it,” says Kaz Shinoda, 50. A high-school English teacher, he has had no pay raise for four years, yet the costs of feeding his wife and two children have soared.
His friend Takumu Kato, a retired biology teacher, has it worse. He recently started work as a night clerk in a 7-Eleven store to make ends meet.
Millions of Japanese like him have moved to part-time and casual work as the lifetime employment system crumbles. About a third of all employees are now non-regular workers. The Japanese call them “freeters,” from the English “free” and the German “ arbeiter,” or worker.
The result is a rising sense of insecurity. “It used to be that if you were hired by a company, you at least had a guarantee for life,” says Tetsuya Iida, whose temporary employment agency recently sent him to operate a machine that picks up street litter. “Now you can get fired any time.”
Twenty years ago, the overwhelming majority of Japanese – 75 per cent – used to consider themselves middle class. Today only about half do.
It's a long way from the “miracle” years. After registering 10 per cent average annual growth in the 1960s, 5 per cent in the 1970s and 4 per cent in the 1980s, Japan's was the most talked-about economy on the planet, a marvel of efficiency and creativity that seemed destined to eclipse the washed-up nations of the West. Readers snapped up books like Harvard scholar Ezra Vogel's Japan as Number One to find out how the Japanese were beating the Americans at their own game. U.S. congressmen railed against Japanese companies for flooding North America with cheap cars, stereos and TV sets while buying up famous assets like Hollywood's Columbia Pictures and New York's Rockefeller Center.
It seemed as if the Japanese had invented a new and better kind of capitalism, one that combined with wealth-creating dynamism of the Western market system with the steady hand of government guidance and the security of lifetime employment.
The beginning of the fall
It all started to unravel on Jan. 2, 1990. That day, the main index of the Tokyo stock market started falling from its dizzying peak of more than 39,000 (nearly three times its level today). The collapse of Japan's stock and real estate markets brought on the “lost decade” of the 1990s, a time of stagnating growth, rising joblessness and soaring suicide rates.
The things that had been touted as Japan's strengths turned out to be weaknesses. The wise, all-seeing bureaucrats who had guided its rise to riches were, in fact, often blinkered and hidebound, sealed in an unhealthy embrace with powerful, often corrupt, politicians. The giant corporations that had so impressed the world were revealed as coddled, unresponsive dinosaurs whose faults had been covered up by friendly banks and interlinked corporate allies. Mitsubishi's corporate family, for example, included Kirin beer and Nikon cameras as well as Mitsubishi Trust, Mitsubishi Bank, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mitsubishi Electric and others.
Lifetime employment prevented companies from hiring and firing workers to account for economic ups and downs. A stock market that scorned the small shareholder meant that Japanese kept their money in the bank, earning almost no interest and producing virtually no wealth, as it might if invested in the market. Even today Japanese savers have a staggering $15-trillion that is, in effect, stuffed under the mattress.
The capacity to change
Ever since Japan's crisis, it has been clear what has to change to make things right. Companies have to break their incestuous ties with banks and allied companies and govern themselves more like North American or European companies, with independent directors, stronger rights for shareholders and transparent reporting. Government has to ease regulation in the domestic market and put a fire under companies by letting more foreign companies come in to compete.
The country has to make up for the coming labour shortage by bringing in more immigrants and encouraging more women to enter the work force.
“Japan needs the world and the world needs Japan,” says Scott Callon, head of a Tokyo investment fund who is “very much a proponent of more openness, more cross-fertilization with the external world.”
But to get there, he says, Japanese will have to defeat the forces of tradition, insularity and complacency.
“There's a fight on for Japan's future between those who want a brighter future, with more risk, and those who say ‘what we have is what we have and we should protect it.' It's the difference between looking forward and looking back.”
The good news, Mr. Callon says, is that “Japan has demonstrated a tremendous ability to change. This is a country which has proven to be very capable of keeping true to its traditions and culture yet bringing in what works for the rest of the world.”
Despite the inevitables, Ken Courtis agrees. In the Meiji Restoration of the late 19th century, he notes, Japan transformed itself from an isolated, feudal state into a modern power with a Western legal system, an all-new education system and the beginnings of parliamentary government.
Again, after the Second World War, it clawed its way out of the ashes of defeat to become the world's economic wunderkind. It is as wrong now to write off Japan as a spent force as it was to say before that it was destined to rule the world economy.
The question is not so much whether Japan can change, but whether it can change fast enough. The answer is still very much in the balance.
To escape the collision of death and taxes, Japan will need to put on a burst of speed in productivity and wealth creation like nothing since its “miracle” years. Possible? Yes, if Japan grasps the nettle and musters the will to act decisively. Likely? Mr. Courtis scribbles a to-do list for Japan, ranging from massive corporate reform and wholesale privatization of state assets to higher immigration and all-out attack on the debt.
The changes that are needed are profound. Allowing mass immigration would require a huge cultural shift. For a country that still depends on its women to raise the young and care for the aged, seeing women shift en masse into paid work would take another sharp adjustment. Companies fear opening up to a world of hostile takeovers, mergers, critical directors and shareholder revolts.
Mr. Courtis looks down at the list. “Now how likely do you think it is that all of that will happen?”
For a society that operates by consensus, with a political system dominated by conservative vested interests, reaching any decision can be an agony, to say nothing of a decision to fundamentally reorder a whole society. “The Japanese knew after Midway that they had lost the war,” says Mr. Courtis, referring to the American naval victory in the Pacific six months after Pearl Harbour, “But they couldn't make the decision to end it.”
Japan had its economic Midway nearly 20 years ago, in the 1990 market crash. Time to change is running out, the inevitables are closing in.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
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sooooo sloooooow here
ARTICLE HERE
Broadband service here is eight to 30 times as fast as in the United States -- and considerably cheaper. Japan has the world's fastest Internet connections, delivering more data at a lower cost than anywhere else, recent studies show.
Accelerating broadband speed in this country -- as well as in South Korea and much of Europe -- is pushing open doors to Internet innovation that are likely to remain closed for years to come in much of the United States.
The speed advantage allows the Japanese to watch broadcast-quality, full-screen television over the Internet, an experience that mocks the grainy, wallet-size images Americans endure.
Ultra-high-speed applications are being rolled out for low-cost, high-definition teleconferencing, for telemedicine -- which allows urban doctors to diagnose diseases from a distance -- and for advanced telecommuting to help Japan meet its goal of doubling the number of people who work from home by 2010.
"For now and for at least the short term, these applications will be cheaper and probably better in Japan," said Robert Pepper, senior managing director of global technology policy at Cisco Systems, the networking giant.
Japan has surged ahead of the United States on the wings of better wire and more aggressive government regulation, industry analysts say.
The copper wire used to hook up Japanese homes is newer and runs in shorter loops to telephone exchanges than in the United States. This is partly a matter of geography and demographics: Japan is relatively small, highly urbanized and densely populated. But better wire is also a legacy of American bombs, which razed much of urban Japan during World War II and led to a wholesale rewiring of the country.
In 2000, the Japanese government seized its advantage in wire. In sharp contrast to the Bush administration over the same time period, regulators here compelled big phone companies to open up wires to upstart Internet providers.
In short order, broadband exploded. At first, it used the same DSL technology that exists in the United States. But because of the better, shorter wire in Japan, DSL service here is much faster. Ten to 20 times as fast, according to Pepper, one of the world's leading experts on broadband infrastructure.
Indeed, DSL in Japan is often five to 10 times as fast as what is widely offered by U.S. cable providers, generally viewed as the fastest American carriers. (Cable has not been much of a player in Japan.)
Perhaps more important, competition in Japan gave a kick in the pants to Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. (NTT), once a government-controlled enterprise and still Japan's largest phone company. With the help of government subsidies and tax breaks, NTT launched a nationwide build-out of fiber-optic lines to homes, making the lower-capacity copper wires obsolete. "Obviously, without the competition, we would not have done all this at this pace," said Hideki Ohmichi, NTT's senior manager for public relations.
His company now offers speeds on fiber of up to 100 megabits per second -- 17 times as fast as the top speed generally available from U.S. cable. About 8.8 million Japanese homes have fiber lines -- roughly nine times the number in the United States.
The burgeoning optical fiber system is hurtling Japan into an Internet future that experts say Americans are unlikely to experience for at least several years.
Shoji Matsuya, director of diagnostic pathology at Kanto Medical Center in Tokyo, has tested an NTT telepathology system scheduled for nationwide use next spring.
It allows pathologists -- using high-definition video and remote-controlled microscopes -- to examine tissue samples from patients living in areas without access to major hospitals. Those patients need only find a clinic with the right microscope and an NTT fiber connection.
"Before, we did not have the richness of image detail," Matsuya said, noting that Japan has a severe shortage of pathologists. "With this equipment, I think it is possible to make a definitive remote diagnosis of cancer."
Japan's leap forward, as the United States has lost ground among major industrialized countries in providing high-speed broadband connections, has frustrated many American high-tech innovators.
"The experience of the last seven years shows that sometimes you need a strong federal regulatory framework to ensure that competition happens in a way that is constructive," said Vinton G. Cerf, a vice president at Google.
Japan's lead in speed is worrisome because it will shift Internet innovation away from the United States, warns Cerf, who is widely credited with helping to invent some of the Internet's basic architecture. "Once you have very high speeds, I guarantee that people will figure out things to do with it that they haven't done before," he said.
As a champion of Japanese-style competition through regulation, Cerf supports "net neutrality" legislation now pending in Congress. It would mandate that phone and cable companies treat all online traffic equally, without imposing higher tolls for certain content.
The proposed laws would probably save billions for companies such as Google and Yahoo, but consumer advocates say they would also save money for most home Internet users.
U.S. phone and cable companies, which control about 98 percent of the country's broadband market, strongly oppose the proposed laws, saying they would discourage the huge investments needed to upgrade broadband speed.
Yet the story of how Japan outclassed the United States in the provision of better, cheaper Internet service suggests that forceful government regulation can pay substantial dividends.
The opening of Japan's copper phone lines to DSL competition launched a "virtuous cycle" of ever-increasing speed, said Cisco's Pepper. The cycle began shortly after Japanese politicians -- fretting about an Internet system that in 2000 was slower and more expensive than what existed in the United States -- decided to "unbundle" copper lines.
For just $2 a month, upstart broadband companies were allowed to rent bandwidth on an NTT copper wire connected to a Japanese home. Low rent allowed them to charge low prices to consumers -- as little as $22 a month for a DSL connection faster than almost all U.S. broadband services.
In the United States, a similar kind of competitive access to phone company lines was strongly endorsed by Congress in a 1996 telecommunications law. But the federal push fizzled in 2003 and 2004, when the Federal Communications Commission and a federal court ruled that major companies do not have to share phone or fiber lines with competitors. The Bush administration did not appeal the court ruling.
"The Bush administration largely turned its back on the Internet, so we have just drifted downwards," said Thomas Bleha, a former U.S. diplomat who served in Japan and is writing a history of how that country trumped the United States in broadband.
As the United States drifted, a prominent venture capitalist in Japan pounced on his government's decision to open up the country's copper wire.
Masayoshi Son, head of a company called Softbank, offered broadband that was much cheaper and more than six times as fast as NTT's. He added marketing razzmatazz to the mix, dispatching young people to street corners to give away modems that would connect users to a service called Yahoo BB. (The U.S.-based Yahoo owns about a third of it.) The company's share of DSL business in Japan has exploded in the past five years, from zero to 37 percent. As competition grew, the monthly cost of broadband across Japan fell by about half, as broadband speed jumped 33-fold, according to a recent study.
"Once a customer enjoyed the high speed of DSL, then he or she preferred more speed," said Harumasa Sato, a professor of telecommunication economics at Konan University in Kobe.
The growing addiction to speed, ironically, is returning near-monopoly power in fiber to NTT, which owns and controls most new fiber lines to homes. Growth of new fiber connections exceeded DSL growth two years ago. Fiber is how all of Japan will soon be connected -- for phones, television and nearly all other services.
"NTT is becoming dominant again in the fiber broadband kingdom," Sato said.
That infuriates its competitors. Yahoo BB and others are demanding that the government once again compel NTT to unlock the lines.
In Japan, the regulatory wars over broadband are far from over.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Best time to buy stuff
HERE
AT 50 CENTS a roll — instead of the regular retail price of $4 — buying wrapping paper after New Year's is an easy way to save. The same holds true for buying half-price inflatable pool loungers and patio furniture after Labor Day weekend.
In fact, bargain lovers know that there's a smart time to buy just about anything. For example, those looking for a great deal on a car should shop on weekday mornings in September. Groceries are cheapest on Sunday evenings.
We talked to the experts, and found the best time to buy everything from wine to wedding dresses.
Airplane Tickets
When to buy: On a Wednesday, 21 days (or a couple of days earlier) before your flight.
Why: Airlines make major pricing changes (and run fare sales) every week, typically on Tuesday evenings and Wednesday mornings. About 21 days out from your flight, you'll see plenty of deals out there as airlines scramble to fill seats, says Anne Banas, executive editor of SmarterTravel.com, a consumer travel advice Web site. Don't wait much longer, she cautions; prices jump significantly from 14 to seven days ahead of departure.
Appliances
When to buy: During a holiday weekend.
Why: You'll find sales on select models all year long, but retailers bring out the big guns for holiday weekends, says Carolyn Forte, homecare director for the Good Housekeeping Institute. But don't worry about spending your Fourth of July and Labor Day weekends shopping for a new fridge — smaller holidays like Columbus Day and President's Day have their share of sales, too.
Baby Clothes
When to buy: During your pregnancy.
Why: Once you know your due date, keep an eye out for end-of-season clearances, recommends Alan Fields, co-author of "Baby Bargains." "If you're [newly] pregnant now, you know you'll be having a baby next summer," he says. "Well, right now, stores are closing out all the summer clothes." You can pick up newborn essentials like onesies for less than half price. (For more ways to save, see our column Oh Baby!)
Broadway Tickets
When to buy: Hours before the curtain rises.
Why: How does a $25 front-row seat to the smash musical "Wicked" sound? Several musicals offer same-day ticket lotteries that offer up orchestra seats at inexpensive prices. If you'd rather not gamble on getting a seat, wait in line at the famous TKTS booth in Times Square. There, you can get tickets for hit musicals for up to 50% off. On a recent night, prime seats were available for "Hairspray," "Rent," "Sweeney Todd" and "Beauty & the Beast." (For the right times to drop by TKTS, and other ways to save, see our column A Midsummer Night's Dream.)
Cars
When to buy: Weekday mornings in September.
Why: By September, all the next year's models have arrived at the lot, and dealers are desperate to get rid of the current year's leftovers, says Phil Reed, consumer advice editor for Edmunds.com. It's the prime time of year for incentives and sales, not to mention bargaining. "Any car that's been on the lot for a long time loses its value in the eyes of the car salesman," he says.
Heading to the dealership on a weekday morning also helps because there's low foot traffic, meaning you'll have ample time to negotiate and fewer people trying to buy the same car. The more demand, the less willing a salesman is to go down on price, says Reed. (For more, see our column Summer Car Savings.)
Champagne
When to buy: December
Why: Most people assume that because everyone wants a good bottle of Champagne for New Year's Eve that prices go up during the holidays, says Sharon Castillo, director of the Office of Champagne, USA, which represents the trade association of growers in the Champagne region. But due to fierce competition among the Champagne houses, prices are actually lower during the holidays than they are at any other time of year. (For more on picking the right bottle, see our column Break Out the Bubbly.)
Clothing
When to buy: Thursday evenings, six to eight weeks after an item arrives in stores.
Why: After an item lingers in stores a month or more, retailers start dropping its price to get it out the door, says Kathryn Finney, author of "How to Be a Budget Fashionista." These season-end clearances tend to be the same month that designers host fashion weeks (February and September) to preview the next fall or spring collections. So smart buyers can check the catwalk to see if any of this season's trends — say, leggings or military-style jackets — will still be hot next year, and then scoop them up on clearance.
Hitting the mall on a weekday ensures you'll get a good selection. "On the weekend, you'll only get picked-over stuff because the stores don't have time to restock," she says. By Thursday, most of the weekend sales have begun, but everything available is on the floor.
Computers and electronics
When to buy: Just after a new model is launched.
Why: When the latest and greatest of a product is released, you'll often see prices drop on what had previously been the best thing out there, says Tom Merritt, executive editor for CNET, an electronics review web site. Case in point: When Apple released the Nano last September, prices for the now-discontinued Mini dropped 12%, from $199 for a 4GB to about $175. So keep your eyes open for announcements from major manufacturers. Want a little less work? Time your purchases for after big annual technology show like MacWorld (next held Jan. 8-12, 2007) and the International Consumer Electronics Show (next held Jan. 8-11, 2007).
Gas
When to buy: Early morning or late evening on a weekday.
Why: Time your trip based on whether prices are rising or falling, advises Marshall Brain, founder of HowStuffWorks, a consumer guide. Gas stations tend to change their prices between 10 a.m. and noon, so hit the pump in the early morning if gas prices are on the rise. Go later in the day if prices are falling. Tipsters on GasPriceWatch.com reported that on Sept. 3, a WaWa gas station in Lanoka Harbor, N.J., was offering regular gas for $2.85 a gallon. One day later the station's price had dropped to $2.65. In that case, going early would have cost you 20 cents more per gallon.
Try not to buy gas on the weekends, Brain says. Gas prices are often slightly elevated, as stations try to profit from leisure travelers. (For more ways to save, see our column Save on Gas.)
Gift Cards
When to buy: A day or two before you give it.
Why: These days, gift cards carry a plethora of hidden pitfalls, from expiration dates to dormancy fees, says Dan Horne, a professor of marketing at Providence College known as the "Gift Card Guru." That countdown to fees starts as soon as you buy the card. "You don't want to short-change the recipient," he says.
Groceries
When to buy: Sunday evenings.
Why: Store sales tend to run Wednesday through Tuesday, says Teri Gault, founder of The Grocery Game, a consumer savings program. On Sunday, you'll also have the latest round of manufacturer's coupons from your morning paper. "You can maximize your coupons available for that shopping week," she says. Heading to the store close to closing time means you'll have access to sales on fresh items that must be sold by the end of the day, such as meats and baked goods.
Of course, you'll also benefit from in-season items that can be frozen for use later in the year, says Gault. That means turkeys at Thanksgiving and hams at Christmas and Easter. During the spring and summer, buy fresh produce. Peaches bought at $1 per pound now can be kept frozen for smoothies and pies throughout the winter, she says.
Shrubs, Trees and Other Plants
When to buy: Fall
Why: Take a break from raking up leaves to purchase trees, shrubs and other perennials for your yard. Prices nosedive after midsummer, as garden supply stores and nurseries try to clear out their stock. You can also get great deals on bulbs during the fall. Just store them according to the package instructions for best planting results next spring. For more, see our column Cheap Landscaping Tricks.)
Televisions
When to buy: Six to 12 months after a particular model is launched.
Why: A new TV drops in price after a few months on the market, says CNET's Merritt. Although there will be newer models out there, it's unlikely they'll offer any significant improvements to justify that brand new price. "The technology is proceeding at such a pace that the models out there are not going to be obsolete anytime soon," he says. (For more, see our column The World Is Flat.)
Wedding Dresses
When to buy: Between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Why: Boutiques are stocked up on dresses for the post-Christmas rush (many people get engaged over the holidays), yet traffic is low, says Fields, who also co-authored "Bridal Bargains." "It's not a busy time to buy a wedding dress because people are thinking about the holidays," he says. You'll also have room to bargain.
Wine
When to buy: Early fall.
Why: For best selection, you can't beat the fall harvest season. That's when most vineyards release their latest vintages. Buying in August and September is also your best shot at snagging so-called "cult wines" — those with limited production and high demand, says Kathleen Schumacher-Hoertkorn, CEO of New Vine Logistics, an online interstate wine retailer. (For more, see our column Buying Wine Online.)
AT 50 CENTS a roll — instead of the regular retail price of $4 — buying wrapping paper after New Year's is an easy way to save. The same holds true for buying half-price inflatable pool loungers and patio furniture after Labor Day weekend.
In fact, bargain lovers know that there's a smart time to buy just about anything. For example, those looking for a great deal on a car should shop on weekday mornings in September. Groceries are cheapest on Sunday evenings.
We talked to the experts, and found the best time to buy everything from wine to wedding dresses.
Airplane Tickets
When to buy: On a Wednesday, 21 days (or a couple of days earlier) before your flight.
Why: Airlines make major pricing changes (and run fare sales) every week, typically on Tuesday evenings and Wednesday mornings. About 21 days out from your flight, you'll see plenty of deals out there as airlines scramble to fill seats, says Anne Banas, executive editor of SmarterTravel.com, a consumer travel advice Web site. Don't wait much longer, she cautions; prices jump significantly from 14 to seven days ahead of departure.
Appliances
When to buy: During a holiday weekend.
Why: You'll find sales on select models all year long, but retailers bring out the big guns for holiday weekends, says Carolyn Forte, homecare director for the Good Housekeeping Institute. But don't worry about spending your Fourth of July and Labor Day weekends shopping for a new fridge — smaller holidays like Columbus Day and President's Day have their share of sales, too.
Baby Clothes
When to buy: During your pregnancy.
Why: Once you know your due date, keep an eye out for end-of-season clearances, recommends Alan Fields, co-author of "Baby Bargains." "If you're [newly] pregnant now, you know you'll be having a baby next summer," he says. "Well, right now, stores are closing out all the summer clothes." You can pick up newborn essentials like onesies for less than half price. (For more ways to save, see our column Oh Baby!)
Broadway Tickets
When to buy: Hours before the curtain rises.
Why: How does a $25 front-row seat to the smash musical "Wicked" sound? Several musicals offer same-day ticket lotteries that offer up orchestra seats at inexpensive prices. If you'd rather not gamble on getting a seat, wait in line at the famous TKTS booth in Times Square. There, you can get tickets for hit musicals for up to 50% off. On a recent night, prime seats were available for "Hairspray," "Rent," "Sweeney Todd" and "Beauty & the Beast." (For the right times to drop by TKTS, and other ways to save, see our column A Midsummer Night's Dream.)
Cars
When to buy: Weekday mornings in September.
Why: By September, all the next year's models have arrived at the lot, and dealers are desperate to get rid of the current year's leftovers, says Phil Reed, consumer advice editor for Edmunds.com. It's the prime time of year for incentives and sales, not to mention bargaining. "Any car that's been on the lot for a long time loses its value in the eyes of the car salesman," he says.
Heading to the dealership on a weekday morning also helps because there's low foot traffic, meaning you'll have ample time to negotiate and fewer people trying to buy the same car. The more demand, the less willing a salesman is to go down on price, says Reed. (For more, see our column Summer Car Savings.)
Champagne
When to buy: December
Why: Most people assume that because everyone wants a good bottle of Champagne for New Year's Eve that prices go up during the holidays, says Sharon Castillo, director of the Office of Champagne, USA, which represents the trade association of growers in the Champagne region. But due to fierce competition among the Champagne houses, prices are actually lower during the holidays than they are at any other time of year. (For more on picking the right bottle, see our column Break Out the Bubbly.)
Clothing
When to buy: Thursday evenings, six to eight weeks after an item arrives in stores.
Why: After an item lingers in stores a month or more, retailers start dropping its price to get it out the door, says Kathryn Finney, author of "How to Be a Budget Fashionista." These season-end clearances tend to be the same month that designers host fashion weeks (February and September) to preview the next fall or spring collections. So smart buyers can check the catwalk to see if any of this season's trends — say, leggings or military-style jackets — will still be hot next year, and then scoop them up on clearance.
Hitting the mall on a weekday ensures you'll get a good selection. "On the weekend, you'll only get picked-over stuff because the stores don't have time to restock," she says. By Thursday, most of the weekend sales have begun, but everything available is on the floor.
Computers and electronics
When to buy: Just after a new model is launched.
Why: When the latest and greatest of a product is released, you'll often see prices drop on what had previously been the best thing out there, says Tom Merritt, executive editor for CNET, an electronics review web site. Case in point: When Apple released the Nano last September, prices for the now-discontinued Mini dropped 12%, from $199 for a 4GB to about $175. So keep your eyes open for announcements from major manufacturers. Want a little less work? Time your purchases for after big annual technology show like MacWorld (next held Jan. 8-12, 2007) and the International Consumer Electronics Show (next held Jan. 8-11, 2007).
Gas
When to buy: Early morning or late evening on a weekday.
Why: Time your trip based on whether prices are rising or falling, advises Marshall Brain, founder of HowStuffWorks, a consumer guide. Gas stations tend to change their prices between 10 a.m. and noon, so hit the pump in the early morning if gas prices are on the rise. Go later in the day if prices are falling. Tipsters on GasPriceWatch.com reported that on Sept. 3, a WaWa gas station in Lanoka Harbor, N.J., was offering regular gas for $2.85 a gallon. One day later the station's price had dropped to $2.65. In that case, going early would have cost you 20 cents more per gallon.
Try not to buy gas on the weekends, Brain says. Gas prices are often slightly elevated, as stations try to profit from leisure travelers. (For more ways to save, see our column Save on Gas.)
Gift Cards
When to buy: A day or two before you give it.
Why: These days, gift cards carry a plethora of hidden pitfalls, from expiration dates to dormancy fees, says Dan Horne, a professor of marketing at Providence College known as the "Gift Card Guru." That countdown to fees starts as soon as you buy the card. "You don't want to short-change the recipient," he says.
Groceries
When to buy: Sunday evenings.
Why: Store sales tend to run Wednesday through Tuesday, says Teri Gault, founder of The Grocery Game, a consumer savings program. On Sunday, you'll also have the latest round of manufacturer's coupons from your morning paper. "You can maximize your coupons available for that shopping week," she says. Heading to the store close to closing time means you'll have access to sales on fresh items that must be sold by the end of the day, such as meats and baked goods.
Of course, you'll also benefit from in-season items that can be frozen for use later in the year, says Gault. That means turkeys at Thanksgiving and hams at Christmas and Easter. During the spring and summer, buy fresh produce. Peaches bought at $1 per pound now can be kept frozen for smoothies and pies throughout the winter, she says.
Shrubs, Trees and Other Plants
When to buy: Fall
Why: Take a break from raking up leaves to purchase trees, shrubs and other perennials for your yard. Prices nosedive after midsummer, as garden supply stores and nurseries try to clear out their stock. You can also get great deals on bulbs during the fall. Just store them according to the package instructions for best planting results next spring. For more, see our column Cheap Landscaping Tricks.)
Televisions
When to buy: Six to 12 months after a particular model is launched.
Why: A new TV drops in price after a few months on the market, says CNET's Merritt. Although there will be newer models out there, it's unlikely they'll offer any significant improvements to justify that brand new price. "The technology is proceeding at such a pace that the models out there are not going to be obsolete anytime soon," he says. (For more, see our column The World Is Flat.)
Wedding Dresses
When to buy: Between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Why: Boutiques are stocked up on dresses for the post-Christmas rush (many people get engaged over the holidays), yet traffic is low, says Fields, who also co-authored "Bridal Bargains." "It's not a busy time to buy a wedding dress because people are thinking about the holidays," he says. You'll also have room to bargain.
Wine
When to buy: Early fall.
Why: For best selection, you can't beat the fall harvest season. That's when most vineyards release their latest vintages. Buying in August and September is also your best shot at snagging so-called "cult wines" — those with limited production and high demand, says Kathleen Schumacher-Hoertkorn, CEO of New Vine Logistics, an online interstate wine retailer. (For more, see our column Buying Wine Online.)
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Some marketing thoughts via MSN.
Sydney says:
you were telling me that part of Dave's problem is he doesn't have a name as a comic book artist, that's part of why his sales are weak. In order to establish a name you need exposure right? So how about this... Bite the bullet... Accept the fact that Dave isn't going to make any more money of this comic book venture? So what does he have left?... A comic book. Why not just post the comic book online for free and get free readership? It's eaked out as much money as it's ever going to make. Get more exposure by offering it for free.
Rhody Belo says:
hey thats a good idea, hmmm, your on to something
Sydney says:
The people who bought it won't be unhappy, they already have a hard copy and for people who get it free, they only get an internet version.
Rhody Belo says:
so far this comic thing isn't great sales wise
Sydney says:
Here's another idea but it's not new, I see other publishers doing the same thing. Next time, publish the first 10 pages free, get people into the story before the comic is finished. People can read the first 10 pages and are left hanging wanting more. They have to buy the comic to find out what happens next. I didn't see Dave do that.
Rhody Belo says:
actually we kinda did that with the first issue
Sydney says:
oh really, I didn't see it
Rhody Belo says:
but its kinda all over the place
Sydney says:
Then you need a dedicated site for the comic, kinda like each feature film has it's own site. A place where a reader can go to get updates and all the info they ever wanted.
Rhody Belo says:
true...we didn't do that
Sydney says:
I think there were major flaws in Dave's marketing strategy, people just don't know his comic is out there, even to this day. A lot can be done for little money to promote the comic beyond just random posts on comic book forums
Rhody Belo says:
we just advertised on some critic pages
Sydney says:
not enough, need more in ur face marketing.
Rhody Belo says:
your right bad marketing
Sydney says:
It's not enough just being an artist. I am find out that too many artists like to hide behind their art as an excuse for not marketing themselves properly. There's too many good artists out there, why is it that the crappiest artists make it into the money... they promote promote promote
Rhody Belo says:
wow...we are bad biz guys, the market is kinda shot too which doesn't help a lot
Sydney says:
i think so, you need to look at the market. Is it an emerging market? Is it a growth market? or is it a mature market in decline? Like i said, just being a passionate artist isn't good enough.
Rhody Belo says:
declining big time
Sydney says:
Then what are your options? Use your creative gift and enter a different market? Or recreate the comic market with something creatively different
Rhody Belo says:
yah
Sydney says:
Here's my take. As a business, you need something that will grab customers, something that is unique to your product, something that the other guy doesn't have. As I see it, Dave is just creating more of the same old same old.
Rhody Belo says:
yeh
Sydney says:
I don't see what's giving his product that extra edge. He may be a talented artist... but, he needs to be more original. Sorry if it sounds harsh, it's purely a critique from a business perspective
Rhody Belo says:
Its not harsh at all
Sydney says:
Picture yourself as a comic book geek. Would you buy it or any other title for that matter? What would you buy? What would catch your eye on that already overly saturated comic shelf? If you can figure that out, then you have a competitive product.
Rhody Belo says:
we need a biz mind...we just do art. I think I would bye it if it were colour thats just me
Sydney says:
but there's already so much color out there. You need something else to pull those sales in. Here's something just for shits and giggles. I did mention this before but not sure how realistic it is.
Rhody Belo says:
haha k
Sydney says:
The one thing I do know readers value... quality quality quality. What exactly do I mean? Too much art these days is created on a monthly deadline, too much quality is sacrificed. I think if one can take the time to really create a high level of design , narrative and rendering quality, then people will notice. It won't be a monthly thing that's for sure, but it'll bring in the bucks in the end.
Rhody Belo says:
your right people would rathar get quality then buying shitty by monthly
Sydney says:
Example, Masamune Shirow, people either buy his comics for the art or for his amazingly complex stories. He's now considered god of sci fi manga.
Rhody Belo says:
I think we just banged this out
Sydney says:
I think most artists bang it out because of publishing deadlines, that's the nature of the industry
Rhody Belo says:
yep
you were telling me that part of Dave's problem is he doesn't have a name as a comic book artist, that's part of why his sales are weak. In order to establish a name you need exposure right? So how about this... Bite the bullet... Accept the fact that Dave isn't going to make any more money of this comic book venture? So what does he have left?... A comic book. Why not just post the comic book online for free and get free readership? It's eaked out as much money as it's ever going to make. Get more exposure by offering it for free.
Rhody Belo says:
hey thats a good idea, hmmm, your on to something
Sydney says:
The people who bought it won't be unhappy, they already have a hard copy and for people who get it free, they only get an internet version.
Rhody Belo says:
so far this comic thing isn't great sales wise
Sydney says:
Here's another idea but it's not new, I see other publishers doing the same thing. Next time, publish the first 10 pages free, get people into the story before the comic is finished. People can read the first 10 pages and are left hanging wanting more. They have to buy the comic to find out what happens next. I didn't see Dave do that.
Rhody Belo says:
actually we kinda did that with the first issue
Sydney says:
oh really, I didn't see it
Rhody Belo says:
but its kinda all over the place
Sydney says:
Then you need a dedicated site for the comic, kinda like each feature film has it's own site. A place where a reader can go to get updates and all the info they ever wanted.
Rhody Belo says:
true...we didn't do that
Sydney says:
I think there were major flaws in Dave's marketing strategy, people just don't know his comic is out there, even to this day. A lot can be done for little money to promote the comic beyond just random posts on comic book forums
Rhody Belo says:
we just advertised on some critic pages
Sydney says:
not enough, need more in ur face marketing.
Rhody Belo says:
your right bad marketing
Sydney says:
It's not enough just being an artist. I am find out that too many artists like to hide behind their art as an excuse for not marketing themselves properly. There's too many good artists out there, why is it that the crappiest artists make it into the money... they promote promote promote
Rhody Belo says:
wow...we are bad biz guys, the market is kinda shot too which doesn't help a lot
Sydney says:
i think so, you need to look at the market. Is it an emerging market? Is it a growth market? or is it a mature market in decline? Like i said, just being a passionate artist isn't good enough.
Rhody Belo says:
declining big time
Sydney says:
Then what are your options? Use your creative gift and enter a different market? Or recreate the comic market with something creatively different
Rhody Belo says:
yah
Sydney says:
Here's my take. As a business, you need something that will grab customers, something that is unique to your product, something that the other guy doesn't have. As I see it, Dave is just creating more of the same old same old.
Rhody Belo says:
yeh
Sydney says:
I don't see what's giving his product that extra edge. He may be a talented artist... but, he needs to be more original. Sorry if it sounds harsh, it's purely a critique from a business perspective
Rhody Belo says:
Its not harsh at all
Sydney says:
Picture yourself as a comic book geek. Would you buy it or any other title for that matter? What would you buy? What would catch your eye on that already overly saturated comic shelf? If you can figure that out, then you have a competitive product.
Rhody Belo says:
we need a biz mind...we just do art. I think I would bye it if it were colour thats just me
Sydney says:
but there's already so much color out there. You need something else to pull those sales in. Here's something just for shits and giggles. I did mention this before but not sure how realistic it is.
Rhody Belo says:
haha k
Sydney says:
The one thing I do know readers value... quality quality quality. What exactly do I mean? Too much art these days is created on a monthly deadline, too much quality is sacrificed. I think if one can take the time to really create a high level of design , narrative and rendering quality, then people will notice. It won't be a monthly thing that's for sure, but it'll bring in the bucks in the end.
Rhody Belo says:
your right people would rathar get quality then buying shitty by monthly
Sydney says:
Example, Masamune Shirow, people either buy his comics for the art or for his amazingly complex stories. He's now considered god of sci fi manga.
Rhody Belo says:
I think we just banged this out
Sydney says:
I think most artists bang it out because of publishing deadlines, that's the nature of the industry
Rhody Belo says:
yep
Thursday, July 12, 2007
spork?
Kool designs
Nagoya ramen chain Sugakiya have finally redesigned their famous ramen fork. The old design is shown above on the right, the new design is in the centre with a child's version on the left. It looks even more like a spork now although it is a little deeper and the prongs are longer than other models on the market. It is the first redesign in 29 years for the chain and they aim to roll it out over their 329 stores by September. Sugakiya claims that this new version is easier to use and the big news is that they believe it will become so popular that they will be able to do away with disposable chopsticks almost entirely by March of next year. Disposable chopsticks have become more expensive since China restricted exports with the possibility of a complete halt in 2008.
Nagoya ramen chain Sugakiya have finally redesigned their famous ramen fork. The old design is shown above on the right, the new design is in the centre with a child's version on the left. It looks even more like a spork now although it is a little deeper and the prongs are longer than other models on the market. It is the first redesign in 29 years for the chain and they aim to roll it out over their 329 stores by September. Sugakiya claims that this new version is easier to use and the big news is that they believe it will become so popular that they will be able to do away with disposable chopsticks almost entirely by March of next year. Disposable chopsticks have become more expensive since China restricted exports with the possibility of a complete halt in 2008.
Monday, July 09, 2007
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